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The UK budget deficit is currently forecast as £394 billion for 2020/20211. A deficit of some degree is entirely normal, but to put this in context, the 2019/2020 deficit was £56 billion. This suggests that the Covid19 pandemic has cost the UK economy £338 billion, a figure which is rising.
There are a number of reasons for this, for example:
While the government receives its fair share of criticism for some of the decisions made, the likelihood is that if it had not invested in these things, the situation would be far worse for considerably longer.
The government has also committed to investing in infrastructure and new jobs, all of which come at an initial cost. It is too early for these investments to boost the economy with the urgency needed.
To reduce the deficit, the government needs to raise more money. Increasing taxes is one of the quickest ways to do this.
The proposals are still at the early stages now, but have been discussed in the press since around December 2020. While no official announcement has been made, it’s possible that the government are trying to gauge public opinion before committing to any firm decisions.
The Wealth Tax Commission is a group of economists who have drawn on multiple international sources to research the most effective way of reducing the deficit. Their conclusions, published towards the end of 2020, suggest that a wealth tax could work as follows:
It has been estimated that the government could raise up to £260 billion by levying this tax. The wealthiest 1/6th of UK households (or around 8 million people) would be affected.
There have been discussions around raising existing taxes, but given the pressures already on household finances, this is not likely to gain public favour. The options would be:
Income Tax
It would be possible to increase taxes on salaries, dividends, pensions, and rental income. However, this could affect many people who are already struggling, without significantly increasing tax revenue.
Targeting higher earners would be one possibility, but wealthier people have more options to structure their income and reduce taxes.
Overall, an increase in income tax is likely to be unpopular and probably not as effective as a wealth tax.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT)
CGT can arise when you sell an asset (such as shares or a rental property) for a profit. Reliefs are available for properties you have lived in or business assets.
The issue with CGT is that it only arises on certain events, and the investor is in control. So if the rate of CGT were to increase, it would be easy to avoid it by holding on to assets or selling them over time within the annual exemption. Investors may also be more inclined to use investment bonds, which are not subject to CGT, once they have used their ISA allowance.
Inheritance Tax (IHT)
At first glance, increasing the rate of IHT (or reducing the nil rate band, so that more households pay it) seems like a reasonable solution. It would target the same demographic as the hypothetical wealth tax, but would not require anyone to pay the bill out of their income or sell their assets.
But, with the UK now having passed the unfortunate milestone of 100,000 deaths from Covid19, a tax on death at this point seems distasteful. On a more pragmatic note, it also creates uncertainty over when the tax could be collected.
Corporation Tax
The original plan was for the rate of Corporation Tax to reduce from 19% to 17%. The government backtracked on this as part of the 2020 Budget due to the increasing costs of the pandemic.
Targeting businesses any further, particularly as so many have suffered over this past year, is unlikely to be practical or politically palatable.
So, with good reasons not to increase any of the existing taxes, a wealth tax could be the solution.
The UK is wildly unequal in terms of income and wealth distribution. Even before the pandemic, the vast majority of households in the UK had disposable income below the ‘mean’ or average. This indicates that the scale, and what is deemed average, was massively skewed by a smaller number of higher earners.
Wealth is even more unevenly distributed. The richest 10% of households owned around 44% of all wealth. The wealth share of the top 0.1% doubled between 1984 and 2013.
People who rely on their salaries, particularly lower earners, bear a higher amount of tax relative to their income. Income tax, National Insurance, Council Tax, vehicle tax and VAT are essential costs for most people, and cut into an average salary.
Wealthier people still pay these taxes, but they do not have the same effect on their standard of living. Additionally, they are better placed to benefit from rising property prices, capital growth, dividend income (which is taxed at a lower rate than earnings) and tax planning options.
A wealth tax would be one way of reducing the level of inequality.
Some of the benefits of a wealth tax could be:
Disadvantages
Of course, a wealth tax is not a perfect solution. Some potential barriers are:
What You Can Do
If you think you might be affected, here are some things you can do:
Please do not hesitate to contact a member of the team to find out more about tax planning. Book a free call with a member of our team today, without obligation. We look forward to speaking with you.
Please note, advice on Tax and Trusts is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
1 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06167/
2 https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/scale-economic-inequality-uk